Original paper
Abstract
A firm’s patent-to-market (PTM) ratio refers to the percentage of a firm’s market value that is attributable to its patent market value. A hedging portfolio based on PTM ratio generates a monthly return of 71 basis points. The CAPM cannot be rejected for firms with low PTM ratios, but is rejected for firms with high PTM ratios. PTM ratio is a priced factor distinct from known factors in the cross-section of stock returns. PTM ratio is positively associated with future profitability. Our analysis suggests that real option is the channel through which PTM ratio predicts future stock returns.
Keywords:Â Patents, Real Option, Stock Returns, Operation Performance
Trading rules
- Investment universe: NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ stocks with complete accounting and returns data
- Exclude financial firms (SIC 6000-6999), closed-end funds, trusts, ADRs, REITs, units of beneficial interest, and firms with negative book value of equity
- Include only firms with at least one granted patent
- Step 1: Estimate market value (MT) of a firm’s new granted patents using stock market reaction during the first 2 days after patent grant, following Kogan et al. (2017)
- Step 2: Recursively compute the firm’s cumulative market value of patents (CMPi,t) for each firm i in year t
- Calculate Patent-to-Market (PTM) ratio: CMP divided by firm’s market value (MV)
- Sort stocks into decile portfolios based on PTM ratios
- Go long on highest decile and short on lowest decile
- Implement a value-weighted strategy with yearly rebalancing
Python code
Backtrader
import backtrader as bt
import pandas as pd
class PatentToMarketStrategy(bt.Strategy):
def __init__(self):
self.mt_values = {}
self.patent_values = {}
self.ptm_ratios = {}
self.sorted_stocks = []
def prenext(self):
self.next()
def next(self):
self.calculate_mt_values()
self.calculate_patent_values()
self.calculate_ptm_ratios()
self.rank_stocks()
long_stocks = self.sorted_stocks[-10:]
short_stocks = self.sorted_stocks[:10]
for data in self.datas:
if data._name in long_stocks:
self.order_target_percent(data, target=1.0 / len(long_stocks))
elif data._name in short_stocks:
self.order_target_percent(data, target=-1.0 / len(short_stocks))
else:
self.order_target_percent(data, target=0)
def calculate_mt_values(self):
for data in self.datas:
ticker = data._name
close_prices = data.close.get(size=2)
mt_value = close_prices[0] - close_prices[-1]
self.mt_values[ticker] = mt_value
def calculate_patent_values(self):
# This method needs to be implemented with patent data,
# as it requires external data not available in the stock price data.
pass
def calculate_ptm_ratios(self):
for ticker, mt_value in self.mt_values.items():
if ticker in self.patent_values:
self.ptm_ratios[ticker] = self.patent_values[ticker] / mt_value
def rank_stocks(self):
self.sorted_stocks = sorted(self.ptm_ratios, key=self.ptm_ratios.get)
if __name__ == '__main__':
cerebro = bt.Cerebro()
# Add data feeds for stocks here, making sure to filter based on the investment universe criteria
# e.g., cerebro.adddata(feed)
cerebro.addstrategy(PatentToMarketStrategy)
cerebro.broker.setcash(100000.0)
cerebro.broker.setcommission(commission=0.001)
print('Starting Portfolio Value: %.2f' % cerebro.broker.getvalue())
cerebro.run()
print('Final Portfolio Value: %.2f' % cerebro.broker.getvalue())Please note that this code is a starting point and requires additional work to incorporate patent data and filtering the investment universe based on the criteria provided. You may need to integrate this code with your existing backtesting framework and data feeds.